Introduction
"the price swing that sets the London session high or low is many times an energetic price link now it's going to many times be a run on stops or could be returning to a key price level either one can be the basis for this quick spike in price"
Higher Time Frame Requirement"having a higher time frame understanding and implementing the higher time frame analysis to determine what direction the ICT jutsu swing will form"
"I've started your journey in my ICT concepts with the lowest timeframe possible which is this small little segment of price action from an intraday perspective because if you can understand that and as we draw out farther into higher time frame analysis you'll see that these ideas are actually fractal and they form on all time frames"
Definition
"the Judas swing is a false rung that trips traders that lack the understanding of true direction of the day and this is going to come by way of higher time frame analysis and implementing that in the intraday price action"
What Makes It a Judas Swing"the Judas swing is first it leads traders in on the wrong side and then it tears lower going below the asian range low and this whole move little opening price that's exactly the ICT Judas swing"
"there's a specific element that has to be there otherwise it's not a Judas swing"
Time Frame & Window
"you start hunting the Judas swing at midnight New York time okay so this is a New York opening price and it ends at 5:00 a.m. New York time and that's basically the entire five hour window that would be utilized for anticipating this price move"
Midnight to 5 AM NY Time"between midnight New York time at 5:00 a.m. New York time there's going to be a high or low form for the daily range now we understand that typically is on the basis of London high Orlin and low forming"
"I'm not suggesting to everyone sit up all night long waiting for this Judas swing to appear there's some things that you would look for obviously but I can't cover everything in one teaching"
New York Opening Price
"this is the New York opening price so whenever you hear me refer to New York open price it's that price okay whatever the opening price is exactly at midnight New York time I draw that out to around 11 o'clock in the morning"
Bullish Judas Swing
"the premise is we would have to already arrive at an analysis that lends well to bullish prices for euro dollar for this particular day"
Structure & Pattern
"we're looking for an Asian range that is in a tight consolidation we look for initial run-up the trip traders in so buy stops are hid traders arnell long want a breakout we wait for the market to trade down below the asian range low to take the stops anticipate some measure of a sweep 10 20 pips or so but this move below the opening price that this is actually the ICT Judas swing"
Entry Framework
"this is a bullish Judas swing and it creates the low of the day inside the London session the London low - ends up becoming the low of the actual day"
Three-Point Structure"what we look for is obviously a higher time frame premise that we are anticipating bullishness or a higher close on the day and we wait we wait for a scenario where the Asian range is tripped by running the stops above the Asian range high ok this is the first level of manipulation and then we anticipate a move below the opening price preferably we want to see a trade below the asian range low"
Entry Rules
"if you were to trade just below that asian range low as an entry and use a respectable amount of pips in terms of a stop it might get you into a pretty good trade below below this asian range low to a certain degree of support and old Hika trade to you classic support resistance ideas would lend well here as well"
"we want to see a measure of move below the opening price see the actual drop below the opening price is a ICT due to swing when the markets bullish otherwise just any little little movement below it like this one here this would not start a nice et Judas swing"
Element Summary
"the element of a bullish Judas swing is a pop above the Asian range high then a drop below the opening price at midnight and then below the asian range low when that occurs that's the actual Judas swing that's a bullish"
Bearish Judas Swing
"the idea going into this day was higher timeframe bearishness so we anticipate a lower closed based on what we anticipate from either a higher time frame daily or weekly"
Structure & Pattern
"the asian range small tight consolidation we want to see it drop down trip traders in right away then run on the other side of the asian range high that movement above the opening price above the asian range high that is the Judas swing this is the false or trap move"
Detailed Sequence
"the number one premise going into this when it's bearish we want to anticipate lower prices momentum lower so that way we'll be looking for after midnight New York time we want to see price initially drop down below the asian range level when that happens we are set to wait and anticipate the run back above the asian range high when it does that and goes above the opening price at that moment right here on this candle this becomes a Judas swing"
Market Psychology
"because it's now leading people in on the wrong side why because we have already arrived at a bearish tone on the marketplace so our analysis is suggesting lower prices while any rally intraday at this time of day should be viewed as a suspect rally or a fake move it's going to run up here get everybody excited"
Energy Characteristics"notice the most energy is seen with it making the high of the day this is slow lethargic movement below that's typical that stop running below the asian range low those short holders that have been trading short now and a breakout their stops going to be rating above here 10 20 pips type of scenario to unfold that's how about how far to do to swing you'll reach for traits the high today and then quickly moves away"
Confirmation Signal
"that's a telltale hallmark sign that traders have now been trapped and any return back to it all I'm seeing is an Asian range return back to the high doesn't give them an opportunity to see higher prices and then quickly accelerates going lower in the New York session"
Element Summary
"you want to see the manipulation first when it's bearish below the Asian range well then climb above the opening price at midnight and then go through the Asian range high once it does that that's a Judas swing"
"another classic sign that you're right is if it starts to move aggressively away from that high because now it's already done its work sheep are getting slaughtered"
Etymology & Concept Origin
"why did I name it a Judas swing I try to teach my children these concepts and I come up with little interesting titles for certain things like order blocks and new jutsu swings and things like that and it just helps me create a language for them to learn"
The Judas Goat Analogy"it's a phenomenon that makes sense because you know sheep herders they would use a Judas goat and the Judas goat would lead the sheep into the slaughterhouse but the Judas goat would turn away right before going into the slaughterhouse while the Sheep just kept on going on and obviously you know the outcome you get lamb chops"
"that same premise is seen in price action where the they introduce false breakout here but then the Judas goat leads price action lower and traders that see this they want to go short they sell sell sell sell sell and that's actually the wrong thing to be doing the actual prices going the other way after it goes below the opening price"
Practice & Study Guidance
Currency Pairs to Monitor
"it will not give you a trade every single day to practice with it will give you a set up a few times a week if you look at the majors that are coupled with a dollar euro dollar Cable Aussie dollar dollar yen there's four markets if you just watch those it'll give you a wide array of potential scenarios where this type of thing forms"
Historical Study Method
"even if you are not trading them live with your demo account look for these things in hindsight because by printing them out and creating a study log of what these individual days look like it will build a historical reference in your memory and even though you weren't actually in these moves if you are able to watch price action live you'll start to see when it should be happening"
Sample Size Recommendation
"I think if you look at a large sampling of data say you know three or four months and pick a couple pairs you'll see that this is in fact what actually happens in the marketplace"
Frequency Expectations
"it's a repeating phenomenon it's pretty classic it goes on and on in terms of consistency but again try not to believe that it's going to form every single day because it's not going to do that folks there's going to be times where I set up is this really loaded in your favour to see either trades lower with a lower close or a higher close when bullish"
Trading Discipline
"here's the takeaway from this if you don't see this phenomenon take place it's probably better for you to stay out of the market place because you want to be trading in the most highest probable condition and in my opinion if you're looking for London setups this is one of the best things to look for and one the hallmarks to outstanding London sessions"
Study & Review
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