Institutional Order Flow

Understanding where large funds have their money and where the banks are going to reprice

Definition

"when we're looking at institutional overflow the idea is thinking like that market efficiency paradigm okay you're the market maker so what you're looking for is where is the maximum level of liquidity in relationship to where markets have traded from and where they are presently"

"institutional order flow is bullish here then once it gets to this point here we're looking for what the stops below these lows here so we would see institutional order flow swing to the downside"

"that's the nature of institutional order flow... understanding that that's why the market will go to these levels because it's wanting to take those participants either out of the marketplace or draw them in as counterparties to their intended purpose either being a buyer counterparty to sell stops or to be a seller counterparty to buy stops"

Core Concept: Maximum Liquidity

"you're the market maker so what you're looking for is where is the maximum level of liquidity in relationship to where markets have traded from and where they are presently"

The Rebalancing Principle

"the market has delivered price going down it has to close in that gap by trading it on the upside so where forever wherever there is a black candle there must be a green candle"

"the idea is you want to see where the market will reach for for its next level liquidity"

Analysis Method: Bodies vs Wicks

Focus on Candle Bodies

"what i teach is it's the bodies of the candle is where all the volume is the institutional volume there's a difference now the wick is always going to be directly related to retail"

"retail stops because we're looking at a retail platform most instances you're going to see the wic is generally comprised of retail pricing the bulk of the bodies close to the interbank prices"

"we allow the wix to provide us a erroneous price delivery or extreme price delivery but we want to do most of our analysis around the bodies of the candles"

Allowing for Price Extremes

"you have to allow that erroneous price action where it will rat you know run farther than uh you probably would expect it to because of your broker okay so they allow them to open the spread up a little bit more"

RULE: Bodies Define True Lows/Highs

"if we have the bodies of the candles defined here as the real low and allowing all this to be viewed as retail"

Liquidity Zones

Sell Stops Below Lows

"we discussed that there was going to be a high probability of stops resting below these lows... all below these lows in here there's going to be a large pocket of liquidity in the form of cell stops"

"we would see reasonably expected to run through that... we also know that we have a bullish order block right here"

Market Flow Pattern

"we have the run down here clearing out these stops market clears those stops and then once it clears those stops right below here... it's returned back to a bullish order block over here which is the down candle rate for the up move"

"so the market's going to do what it's going to seek the liquidity on the upside so where does that reside next this up candle that's where they sold the last time"

The Void Concept

"we created another liquidity void all these down candles okay all black candles down okay so there has to be the market offering on the buy side they offered it on the sell side so that balance it it has to be green candles or up candles"

Timeframe Hierarchy

Monthly Chart Foundation

MONTHLYPrimary Framework

"so if we have it set up like this on a monthly chart all we have to do is break the market down into a weekly just changing it into a weekly chart"

"so now what we've done is we've mapped out this entire euro dollar from mid 2008 all the way to mid-2012 just by understanding what the monthly levels on institutional order flow will give us"

Weekly to Daily Cascade

"you have to find them on the higher time frame and arrive at where the higher time frame charts are going to seek liquidity because this is where the large funds have their money and where the large money is found on the fund level that's where the banks are going to reprice to"

DAILYSignal Timeframe

"the daily chart will always seek the fund level institutional overflow in other words the stocks that are found on monthly and weekly charts you're going to see all your signals to have the greatest magnitude"

"the biggest moves that take place are always going to be found on that monthly and weekly basis because that's where all the large whales are"

Fund Level vs Retail

Where the Large Money Resides

"it's not for the retail people because you're too small"

"when i say whales i'm talking about big funds large funds okay and when they have money at risk that's where the market's going to go because that's orders that they can counter party with"

"the banks cannot counter party with you and i we're just not big enough even collectively we're not big enough but the funds because they're controlling billions and billions of dollars and they're that's where the money's at"

Why This Matters

"if you can find the levels on the monthly weekly chart keep them on your on your daily chart you'll be able to see all these major shifts in price that sometimes jump off at you after the fact and you wish you would have known they were coming"

The Key Understanding

"that's where the whales reside that's where the large funds reside and that's what pushes price around understanding that that's why the market will go to these levels"

Practical Rules

Framework Rules

Entry/Exit Framework

"if you do your trading around these levels you will see every significant price swing that they ever transpires on price you'll see them coming before they get there"

"you'll also know relative to institutional overflow where the stops or liquidity is above the marketplace when you're ready to buy it or when you expect a bullish scenario to unfold you'll already know where the market should be reaching for"

"when it goes up to a level of resistance or some kind of bearishness before you even sell short you're going to know where it's going to be reaching for which is the cell stops below the recent lows or a bullish order block"

Market Perspective

"by having that idea how the market will continuously look and seek liquidity it's not our liquidity it's not our stops it's looking for it's looking for the stops found on the monthly and the weekly and daily"

Study & Review

Click each card to reveal the answer (direct quotes from transcript)

What is the core principle when analyzing institutional order flow?
"you're the market maker so what you're looking for is where is the maximum level of liquidity in relationship to where markets have traded from and where they are presently"
What is the difference between candle bodies and wicks in terms of institutional analysis?
"the bodies of the candle is where all the volume is the institutional volume there's a difference now the wick is always going to be directly related to retail"
Where do the largest moves originate from in terms of timeframes?
"the biggest moves that take place are always going to be found on that monthly and weekly basis because that's where all the large whales are"
What must happen when there are down candles (black candles)?
"wherever there is a black candle there must be a green candle... the market offering on the buy side they offered it on the sell side so that balance it it has to be green candles or up candles"
Why do banks reprice to fund levels and not retail levels?
"the banks cannot counter party with you and i we're just not big enough even collectively we're not big enough but the funds because they're controlling billions and billions of dollars and they're that's where the money's at"
What should the daily chart always seek?
"the daily chart will always seek the fund level institutional overflow in other words the stocks that are found on monthly and weekly charts"
Where is liquidity typically found below consolidation?
"there was going to be a high probability of stops resting below these lows... all below these lows in here there's going to be a large pocket of liquidity in the form of cell stops"
What is the purpose of institutional order flow reaching certain levels?
"the market will go to these levels because it's wanting to take those participants either out of the marketplace or draw them in as counterparties to their intended purpose"
How can you map out long-term market direction?
"we've mapped out this entire euro dollar from mid 2008 all the way to mid-2012 just by understanding what the monthly levels on institutional order flow will give us"
What will you know before entering a trade if you understand institutional order flow?
"you'll already know where the market should be reaching for should it take off and start trading higher... before you even sell short you're going to know where it's going to be reaching for"