New York Kill Zone
"New York Hill Zone is the same for Forex, okay? It's basically the 7 a.m. Eastern time to 9:00 a.m. Now, you can extend that 1 hour before and 1 hour after and just completely answer all the problems of daylight savings time. But if you're going to be a purist, meaning that you're going to stick to the rules as I first presented them, it's 7:00 a.m. Eastern time to 9:00 a.m. Eastern time."
"That's essentially in futures trading, it's pre-market trading. So, you're trading ahead of the opening bell at 9:30 Eastern time."
Model 2022 Application
"We have relative equal highs in here. The market rallies up, takes that buy side liquidity."
"Then we break below that short-term low, which is what a shift in market structure is bearish."
"Then the market trades higher. This is model 2022 in and of itself for the folks that guys, oh, I ain't seen it working in months. I don't know what you're looking at, but it's it's working every day."
Opening Range
"We have the opening range. The opening range is 9:30 to 10:00 Eastern time. The opening range of 30 minutes."
"What do we do with that information? Well, obviously, you have to know the low of it and the high of it."
Afternoon Opening Range
"And now we're creating what? The opening range, the first 30 minutes of 1:30 to 2:00 Eastern time. That's what sets the tone for the market structure."
"This is the lowest low between 1:30 p.m. Eastern time to 2:00 Eastern time. That's the highest high it formed. This is the time aspect. Okay, this is the parameters on time."
First Presented Fair Value Gap
"So, by having that range defined, we start looking for first presented fair value gaps."
"All you have to do is narrow your focus down to the first 30 minutes because the algorithm is going to leave something there for smart money. It's coded to do that."
"I'm pushing the first presented fair value gap because it's good. It's like it's it's like a silver bullet. It's like it's it's there. It's always going to be there."
Validation Rules
"If you have a very small and there's going to be times where you look at the individual price action of any given day and you may question is the first fair value gap really valid or should you use another one?"
"Now, would you agree that that's a very small fair value gap? It's minuscule. And it really didn't do anything, did it? Did it take price down to take a lower low out? No. So, there's one strike against it."
"Wouldn't it be favorable to see a larger fair value gap than this one that's in an opposing direction?"
"Notice the difference in contrast of its displacement. Significantly larger, isn't it? This would be your very first presented fair value gap within the context and narrative of what you have in price action here."
Silver Bullet at 10:00 AM
"What time is that occurring? At 10:00. That's your silver bullet. It forms every day, folks. There's never been a day where silver bullet never formed."
Opening Range Quadrants
"I have added the Fibonacci to the opening range, low to high. That's what I did here. And I added the upper quadrant and the lower quadrant."
"Now, if I'm bullish on a market and it trades down inside the opening range, I'm going to be watching that upper quadrant."
"trading down into that upper quadrant of the opening range. The first 30 minutes of trading, 9:30 to 10:00. That's algorithmic."
"So by hitting the upper quadrant of the opening range when it's bullish, you can time an entry in here to go higher."
Standard Deviations from Opening Range
"These levels are standard deviations. The standard deviation of the opening range, the first 30 minutes, 9:30, 10:00. This is a half a standard deviation, one standard deviation, 1.5 standard deviation, and it trades up to that after taking the buy side out here."
"it retraases all the way back down to the negative one standard deviation of the opening range of 9:30 to 10 o'clock."
"Here, we know that we have 2.5 standard deviation that would take us above this high."
"And wouldn't you know it, look what happens. Right up to negative -2.5 standard deviation."
Practical Application
"Here's that run up to that standard deviation 1.5. And then one more time, it bumps above it and trades down into the lunch macro ending at 1:30 p.m."
"And it's also trading down into one standard deviation of the opening range at 9:30 to 10:00."
Gap Classifications
Implied Dealing Range
"Implied dealing range is when the market was up here and you anticipate selling off. Where's it going to sell off to? Well, we wanted to see it go down below that 18th and 19th balance price range of March."
"An implied dealing range is a price run that has not completed yet. if you're bullish or bearish where your terminus or target is"
Measuring Gap - 50% of Implied Dealing Range
"Well, if you take this gap here, it's roughly by eyeballing it only, it's about halfway from the high to where it formed to where that line is here"
"I'm trying to eyeball this 50% level and line it up with the middle of the measuring gap. So, I'm going to overlay this red line with this dotted line, which is half or the middle of this cell balance by sign efficiency."
"So, I pulled the fib from this high all the way down. There's where my cursor would be until the 50% of the fib anchored to that high stops me here because the 50% level laying over top of the consequent encroachment of this gap that gives me the perfect measurement for measuring gaps."
"We can anticipate where measuring gaps are going to form if we know where the draw and liquidity is."
Breakaway Gap - 20-30% of Implied Dealing Range
"How about where does the breakaway gap form? Around 20 to 30% of the implied dealing range."
"breakaway gaps are wonderful to anticipate near the 20 to 30% of the price range that has yet to deliver and then 50% of it."
Inversion Fair Value Gap
"Now, because we went above it here and we've got the narrative behind us that it's likely to trade higher. Now, this inefficiency that was a sell sideb or measuring gap, now we can treat it as an inversion fair value gap."
"If you have a market that's changed gears and direction, now it's bullish. If you can get above the opening range high and if there's liquidity obvious in the charts here, this gap over here when it was going up to run the liquidity out, that's a buy side, sell sign deficiency. But when the market changed gears, that turns this into what? A premium array in the form of an inversion fair value gap."
Pseudo Market Maker Buy Model
"the market goes down into the opening range high and the low of this inversion fair value gap. That was the measuring gap. So, it's forming basically a pseudo market maker buy model."
"Trades outside of that inversion fair gap, comes right back down again. Here you go. This is another silver bull inside the hour of 10:00. Displaces to the upside, runs the buy side here, and trades right up into the inversion fair value gap."
Reclaimed Fair Value Gap
"once we went above it here, this would be referred back to as a reclaimed bullish fair value gap, not a bearish value gap."
Time Macros
Lunch Macro (11:30 AM - 1:30 PM)
"This is where the lunch macro begins 11:30 right here. That starts that whole overlapping of what already has happened."
"So at 11:30, whatever you've been doing, anticipate some measure of retracement and grow in the other direction. Not all the time, but the majority of time you're going to see that."
"The lunch macro is 11:30 time Eastern time as far as 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. So, it's a twohour window of time that's collectively referred to by me as the New York lunch."
Lunch Macro: 11:30 AM - 1:30 PM Eastern Time (2-hour window)
"Anticipate some measure of retracement" (18:44-18:46)2:50 - 3:10 PM Macro
"But now we're going into a macro 250 to 310."
Afternoon Macro: 2:50 PM - 3:10 PM Eastern Time3:15 - 3:45 PM Macro (30-Minute Setup Window)
"Between 3:15 and 345, the market's going to operate inside of the narrative that's presently underway."
"But during the 3:15 to 345 macro, it's 30 minutes. You're looking for the setup that leads to murder on close, excuse me, market on close macro."
Setup Window: 3:15 PM - 3:45 PM Eastern Time (30 minutes)
"Looking for the setup that leads to market on close" (23:04-23:08)3:50 PM Market on Close (MOC) - "Rocket Fuel"
"That's what MOC stands for. That's the 350 little price run that usually takes off and creates another higher high or retracement into the range."
"that gives them confidence that that's the setup to buy and run into the close and look for rocket fuel at 350. And here you go. That candlesticks 350."
Market on Close (MOC): 3:50 PM Eastern Time
"Rocket fuel at 350" (24:03)
Bodies vs Wicks - Algorithm Signaling
"This level here, pay attention now. Look at the bodies. See that? Ain't that beautiful? But the wicks are allowed to do the damage."
"What did they do? They went down just below that low I told you. and it went down below it by a tick and then it came right back up to close inside of the level that was projected for a perfect measured run."
"Look at the bodies stopping right where the fib qualifies that being the measuring gap. So the bodies confirm that has been delivered perfectly and the wick has told you what the damage is done."
"Doesn't take out the low, but the bodies are doing what? Staying in that level of that implied dealing range."
Bodies as Algorithmic Confirmation
"Look what it's doing here. Body stopping at the consequent encroachment. The wicks go down just below, but it doesn't completely close it in during the 350, I'm sorry, 315 to 345 macro."
"Bodies are staying in the upper half. What is it telling you? The algorithm is signaling to Smart Money, just like it's been coded to do. Stay out of that area. that gives them confidence that that's the setup to buy and run into the close"
Turtle Soup & Balanced Price Range
Trading Range Management (75-80% and 20% Levels)
"So, when we're playing inside of a large trading range like this, I like to be a little bit more nimble and not require it to do the extremes. So you can you can make a whole lot of wonderful setups using 75 to 80% of the trading range high and low and never trade outside the range and use the smaller short-term highs and lows inside that larger range."
"If we put a fib on that and put in 80 and 20 as the levels, if every swing high that was at or just above but not the actual high here of the trading range that's being shown here, if you look at the extremes of 75 to 80% or the lower extreme and not you're seeing the 20%."
"I believe that you would be able to focus on the ideal little intraday turtle soup formations. They could act as targets or they can act as new entries."
Relative Equal Lows
"Notice that it's below the low here and this low here. Now, why am I making the jump to this low here? Why didn't I use the same logic here? Well, it's because this low actually went just below that one here. So, this is already lower than that one. So that means that it would technically be this low and this low being the relative equal low."
"So I'm going to take your attention to the lower one because in a perfect world, all things being equal, that's where the sell side's going to be."
Balanced Price Range Concept
"here is that balanced price range. And I have it very lightly shaded. But if you're a member of my Telegram, it is very, I guess, satisfying to see what we were looking for this week. Trade down just below that low by a tick. Look at that. That little tiny little stab below that. And then we had all this price movement moving higher."
Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill
"The market breaks down. And this is an institutional orderflow entry drill. And that simply means that this candlestick didn't get completely filled in or closed in and repriced back to the previous candle's low."
"This candlesticks buy side of balance, sell side efficiency, then this cibby sell side of balance, buy sign efficiency creates a balanced price range there. That's why you would expect to see an institutional orderflow entry drill."
"The easiest way to anticipate the institutional order for entry drill is if there's a balance price range in the fair value gap that it's trading up into. Nine times out of 10, if you're bearish, it's not going to completely close that in."
Turtle Soup Application
"Now you can use an inversion fair value gap here. You can use a turtle soup or you can anticipate the run back above here and trust that it will give you a fair value gap"
Advanced Precision Concepts
Measured Moves & Duplicated Price Runs
"This one's very close, but if you look at this price run here, it duplicates itself there. So, we're seeing another measured move, but it begins at the time and on the price inside of the opening range in the afternoon session."
Shift in Market Structure
"We've done it here and then we had this run above this short-term high right there. What is that? That's a shift in market structure. So, we can anticipate the market doing what? Going higher."
Perfect Measured Run Confirmation
"So the implied dealing range came to perfect fruition and it's confirmed with what? Look at the bodies stopping right where the fib qualifies that being the measuring gap."
Study & Review
Click each card to reveal the answer (direct quotes from transcript with timestamps)